Expect your grocery bill to go down, economists forecast - but not to what it was before COVID

On an overcast Wednesday afternoon in a Trader Joe's parking lot, Leu Freycinet put his packed bags on top of car seats where his two young kids usually sit – ensuring these groceries get home safely since he just spent few hundred dollars to feed his family this week.

"Last year, my bill could’ve been about $250 for a family of four per week and now you’re looking at $360 [to] $385, so it has changed a lot," said Freycinet, a Raleigh dad.

Aside from buying for his family, he owns a small business where he meal preps for people.

"It’s hard when you’re trying to create an income off of that business and still remain of value," he said.

Data from the Consumer Price Index shows grocery inflation is down significantly from its peak – and has actually deflated, which can happen when supply is greater than demand or if people have more purchasing power.

It means potentially some good news for everyone – your grocery store bill should be less expensive, economists are forecasting.

That’s surprising to Freycinet, who says his wallet isn’t feeling the changes.

"It’s hard to hear they’re going to go down then you see it and it’s like, 'No, they’re not really changing,'" Freycinet said.

Aside from buying for his family, he owns a small business where he meal preps for people.

"It’s hard when you’re trying to create an income off of that business and still remain of value," he said.

Food we buy to eat at home makes up about 8% of consumer spending, a 2021 federal survey shows. So, economic experts say, when that one bill goes up, it affects how people spend their money at other places. Something the dad of two says he’s experienced as he is trying to save in other place to make up for what he’s spending here.

"You’d love to go out to eat and support local places but it’s hard because their prices have gone up as well," said Freycinet, who moved to the Raleigh during the pandemic. "People just aren’t able to afford what they were able to before."

While economists believe grocery inflation should continue improving, they expect it to remain above pre pandemic levels for the duration of the year.

WRAL Smart Shopper tracks the prices of grocery staples every week.